tirsdag 24. oktober 2023

Going first advantage of 57%: The math

The results from WTC show that the first player has a 57% chance to win the game. On average any player will win the game 50% of the time, since ties are close to impossible. If it's possible to get a tie, I am ignoring it for this calculation.

The math

The chance that this result happened by chance can be computed using the Binominal Test - you can try it here for yourself: Easy Binomial Test Calculator (socscistatistics.com)

There were 292 games played (n), 166 (or 167) games were won by the first player (K), and the chance of winning a game (p) is 0.5. Inserting the numbers show that the chance of the first player getting at least this many wins by chance is .011, or 1.1%. So we can conclude that it is almost certain that the first player win rate is due to going first being better, and not due to random chance.

I am not a professional statistician, but this seems rather straight forward - feel free to inform me if the calculation is wrong.


Went second against Lucant, pushed off scenario

Discussion

Every single player I have talked to during the WTC agrees that going first is a huge advantage. One just said "don't even look at the table or matchup, always go first". The problem is as follows:

Most armies can run units (almost) to the middle of the table turn 1, leaving the opponent the choice of not grabbing much - if any - table space, or getting alphaed top of 2. Both are bad. 

Many armies can run, then defensive / control feat plus run, scoring zones on their side while leaving the second player scrambling to not lose on points top of 3.

I had several matches at the WTC where I knew that if I won the die roll I had good chances, and if I lost I was already in trouble. And that was exactly what happened, if I went first I had a fairly good time (even if I lost - I am not all that good), but going second was brutally hard.


Going first against Borka

I even had one game where I had to move AD units backwards bottom of 1 to not get charged. It’s ridiculous, Steamroller has to be fixed for Mk4. Mk4 is otherwise amazing though, best edition ever, miniatures are awesome, keep it coming.

Just fix Steamroller, please!



 

onsdag 1. februar 2023

Kraye, Pincushion, and Trencher Express Teams: The math

I did a little math to see whether Pincushion helps to land Express Team critical knockdowns. I was expecting it to be slightly better, but was a bit surprised to see how much better!

AnyDice code below. It will check if the 3 highest dice hit the target number, and then whether any of these 3 dice show the same face.

function: crit ROLL:s drop lowest at least TARGET:n {
  result: {1,2,3}@ROLL >= TARGET &
          (1@ROLL = 2@ROLL | 1@ROLL = 3@ROLL | 2@ROLL = 3@ROLL)
}

output [crit 4d6 drop lowest at least 12]

This gives the following chances of hitting the KD on boosted shots using Pincushion (4D6-DL-C), and without Pincushion (3D6-C):


Target  4D6-DL-C  3D6
 4      53.63%    43.98%
 5      53.32%    42.59%
 6      52.55%    39.81%
 7      51.85%    37.96%
 8      49.85%    33.80%
 9      46.91%    29.63%
10      44.52%    26.39%
11      39.74%    22.22%
12      34.80%    18.06%
13      30.25%    14.81%
14      24.38%    10.65%
15      16.67%     6.48%
16      13.04%     4.63%
17       5.79%     1.85%
18       1.62%     0.46%

torsdag 22. desember 2022

Kraye vs Irusk - 50pts

Lightning Shroud is back after a very long covid + divorce + moving + changing jobs + new gf + lots more break!

I started playing a bit of Mk3 Brawlmachine, and now Warmachine Mk4, after Guild Ball was unceremoniously killed off by Steamforged.

Cygnar - First Army - Kraye - 50pts

Captain Jeremiah Kraye
* Cyclone
* 2x Defender
Best Boy
2x Trencher Sniper
Trencher Combat Engineers
Rangers

Arcane Forces, Blessing of the Gods, Infiltration, Old Faithful, Power Swell 

I always loved playing Kraye, and in Mk4 he is better than ever! Today I took him into a wall of Man-o-Wars.

Khador - Armored Korps - Irusk - 50pts

Kommandant Irusk
 * Devastator
Man-O-War Kovnik
Battle Mechanics
Man-O-War Bombardiers
Man-O-War Demolitions Korps
Man-O-War Shocktroopers

Inflitration, Old Faithful, Power Swell + ???

Khador wins the roll off and elects to go first. I take the side with the big house in the center, thinking I can use it to use it to outmaneuver the hulking wall of flesh.

Deployment

Khador puts all the boys in the middle. I fan out a little, planning to flank to the left or right depending on what happens.

Deployment. It sure does not look even :D

Round 1

Irusk hands out Iron Flesh to the front line Shocktroopers and runs up the middle.

Kraye plays Arcane Forces and tags the Shocktroppers with Pincushion. He then casts Admonition on himself. Kraye, one Defender, and a Sniper kill one Shocktrooper and deal 7 damage to the next one, but the last Sniper is half an inch too far away to finish it off.


Cygnar, Round 1 complete

Round 2

Battle Mechanics fully repair the hurt Shocktrooper. Melee MOWs run up. Bombardiers shoot my Cyclone and kill the Best Boy, who I should not have left near a jack. Irusk feats, camps 5, and repos into the central trench.

I think a little about whether I can just shoot Irusk to death, but probably not - I need a 13 to land Pincushion, and even then it seems dicey.

So, it's feat and yoyo time. Jacks take turns killing all the Shocktroopers and one Bombardier, then nimbly step away again, mostly out of melee threat ranges. One sniper picks out a Man-O-War that happened to tough. Most of the tough rolls fail, poor Irusk.

Rangers plus one Sniper kill all the battle mechanics. God, they are so maneuverable now. I score the right zone with a Defender. Attrition is looking very good, game should be mine unless I screw up (spoiler alert).


Cygnar, Round 2 complete

Round 3 

Irusk shoots two Rangers and the Kovnik kills the last one. The two remaining Bombardiers charge damage the Defender in the right zone. My sniper in the zone is splatted by the Devastator.

I activate my Jacks and kill off every last Man-O-War grunt except one Demo Korps. Unfortunately I leave the Defender in charge range of Irusk, and the Cyclone in charge range of the Kovnik - which I totally did not have to do. Points are now 2-2.


Not much left - but I had repoed forwards too aggressively...

Round 4

Irusk gives himself Battle Lust, does a hail mary charge, and finishes off the Defender, and then gives gimself Iron Flesh and camps 1. The Kovnik and Devastator destroy my Cyclone. Oh noes! My misplay leaves me down on attrition, I think assassination is the only option.

Irusk charges the Defender

The Man-O-War has only 1 box left and gets sniped, freeing up the last Defender. Engineers fill him up with full focus. Kraye charges Irusk and leaves him on a few boxes, the Defender then smashes Irusk's head in. Victory to the boys in purple!


Death of a Kommandant

Wrap Up

I think I played this OK until the misplacements in Round 3. Clearly I cannot win a straight up fist fight, so hit and run and win attrition while trying to not lose on scenario seemed solid. 

Rangers were better than excepted. Reposition on units is sick, and allows them to Mark Target without immediately losing the whole unit.

Snipers were MVP, killing off so many 1-point MOWs.

The list is really fun to play, and extremely maneuverable. 4 dice drop lowest kills Man-O-Wars, getting Pincushion really helps Kraye into high armor lists.


torsdag 12. desember 2019

Haxity | Official Reveal Trailer 2019 | (PC)

This is what I've been working on for the last couple of years!

Haxity is a roguelite PvP deckbuilder where you fight, hack and bluff your way through the city, either solo, against a friend, or online.

If you wishlist and follow us on Steam, it would make me very happy!

Cheers,

Christian



onsdag 24. april 2019

Guild Ball: Navigator's Guild painted


I painted my Navigators over Easter. I chose to paint them all as an African guild ball team, complete with clothes inspired by various African clothing. I usually don't do a lot of freehand, so it was fun with a new challenge. The non-freehand parts I kept fairly plain, to increase the contrast.

Skin color


Haven't really painted much black skin before, so I tried this.

Basecoat: P3 Umbral Umber
Shade: GW Nuln Oil wash
Highlight: P3 Umbral Umber + P3 Jack Bone


Navigators Guild

Fathom got a geometrical pattern in Pan-African colors. She was the first of the Navigators miniatures I painted, and inspired me to do the rest to match!

Fathom

Fathom

Ebb got a Kente inspired pattern on his trousers. Inspired by an image I found here.

Ebb

Ebb


Nkyimkyim - Zigzag, Life is not a straight path


Azimuth has a Mali mudcloth inspired pattern on his armor. Trousers are plain green for contrast.


Azimuth

Azimuth

Pattern I used for inspiration here: https://no.pinterest.com/pin/660903314047287972/





I wanted to do a Dashiki shirt for Windfinder, but it had so much structure that I could not find a way to do it. I decided to use that pattern as an inspiration for her pants, and left the shirt white with some gold trim.


Windfinder




Windfinder

Horizon got a Kente inspired shirt. There are so many amazing Kente patterns.


Horizon

Horizon

Inspiration!

Albatross wings are dark on top and white beneath, for camouflage. You learn something new every day!

Wander




tirsdag 21. august 2018

Guild Ball (#70): Battle at Lund - Friday Round 1

First game is against HP’s incredible looking Morticians, pictures can’t do it justice. Several of the models have build in green light diodes!


I want Corsair into all these squishy Morticians.


Fishermen


Corsair
Tentacles
Hag
Jac
Sakana
Gutter

Plots: Back in the Game, Stick to the Plan, Keep Your Chin Up, Kick'em When They are Down, Sell it to the Crowd.

Morticians


Obulus
Vileswarm
Brainpan & Memory
Ghast
Graves
Veteran Hemlocke


Obulus kicks off into a nice position for me.





Round 1


I screw up by forgetting Obulus’ Shadow Like dodge, so instead of forcing him to move into me to pull someone he gets to pull and then move. Great start!



Round 2


Corsair pulls in and takes out Graves and Obulus takes out Hag. I then promptly forget Vileswarm’s ability on takeout and pop him right inside my scrum, dealing 3 damage poison to pretty much everyone near the end of the turn. 23 damage on my team for taking out the mascot, this is really stellar play! 3-2 to me.





Round 3


Corsair just scrums better than Morticians. Ghast and Hemlocke go down, bringing the score to 7-2.





Round 4


Morticians take out Hag again. I score with Sakana and take out Vileswarm again, killing Tentacles, for a final result of 12-5.




Plenty of screws-up on my part, but good to get rid of the rust before tomorrow...

mandag 20. august 2018

Guild Ball: Swedish Nationals 2018

I went to Guild Ball Swedish Nationals 2018 at Battle of Lund this weekend for three days of Guild Ball playing. The winner in the main event will be invited to the World Championship, last chance! I got close to a tournament win in Hungary, so victory here could be within reach, with a bit of luck...

There were visitors from England, Spain, Poland, Chech Republic, several Finns and two Norwegians. The other Norwegian is my WTC team mate Kim.

My luggage was lost by the airline, but of course I had all the important stuff (minis and tools) in the hand luggage. I mean, who needs clean socks and deodorant anyway?

The event started with 2 parallel 3-round warm up tournaments on Friday. I thought this was a very good idea, to get into form to the main event without being totally exhausted, and plenty of time to socialize.

I have slightly changed my lineup to try out Veteran Sakana. My favorite Angel had to go, I really enjoy playing her - but Sakana does the first turn receiving goal almost as well.

Tournament reports will be up soon. In the meantime, enjoy this excellent conversion by HP. Green LEDs! :D




Fishermen


Corsair
Shark
Tentacles
Greyscales
Hag
Jac
Sakana
Veteran Sakana
Siren
Gutter

Battle at Lund - Friday Tournament


Corsair vs Obulus