onsdag 28. desember 2016

Battle Report #49 and #50: Caine2 vs Makeda2

After playing some Caine2 games against Baldur2 it was time to try the newly nerfed Caine2 into a matchup where he used to rock hard: Caine2 against Makeda2. Hans is running the Skorne forces.

Captain Allister Caine (75 points)


Back to my normal Caine2 list.


Captain Allister Caine
* Reinholdt
* Centurion
* Hunter
Journeyman Warcaster
* Firefly
Gun Mage Captain Adept
Ragman
Rhupert
6 Rangers
5 Storm Lances
10 Trencher Infantry

Supreme Archdomina Makeda (75 points)


The trick in  this list is Makeda2 using Stay Death on her army of Tough & Steady kitties, either grinding me down or going for an assassination with the crazy mobility (up to 18" non-linear threat, including a 5" jump).


Supreme Archdomina Makeda (Makeda2)
* Basilisk Krea
* Despoiler
2x Mortitheurge Willbreaker
Tyrant Radheim
Void Spirit
2x5 Praetorian Ferox
4 Paingiver Beast Handlers
Tyrant Commander & Standard Bearer

Tyrant Commander Hans is ready to deal the pain.

Deployment


I have never played this before, so I dunno. Hans wins the die roll and I decide to skew, maybe get one more turn of shooting.




Turn 1


Cats move up.



I circle left.




Turn 2


Boy do the kitties hit hard. Two Arcane Shielded Lances go down. Tyrant Radheim hits Caine2 hard, but he lives.




I put Grievous Wounds on three kitties and kill them, leaving way, way too many alive.




Clearly I cannot survive the next turn. We shake hands.

Skorne wins by assassination!

Post Mortem


This is one matchup where the nerfs to Caine are super bad! This matchup used to be a walk in the park for Caine2, since he could put Grievous on almost everything and murder a whole lot of kitties. Now that I can only kill around 3 a turn, things have changed a lot.

We talked through the game and clearly I made things a buit easy by going so aggressive and allowing him to jam so hard. We reset and try again!




The next game went exactly the same way. I tried to feat and not use Grievous and try to see how much I could get away just by volume of attacks. The answer: Not much.

Battle Report #48: Haley2 vs Baldur2

After our Caine2 vs Baldur2 games (match #1 and match #2), Asbjørn and I went and had a nice sushi lunch. Then we went back to work, or play, or whatever you would call drinking a beer and throwing dice in a serious manner a Tuesday afternoon during Christmas.

I wanted to check out an alternative Haley2 list, and Asbjørn wanted more Baldur2 practice, so we started another game.

Haley2 has also been nerfed very slightly, losing Deflection for Force Field, and getting a slight nerf to Time Bomb. Not a good trade, but some of her worst enemies also got hit. She is still probably one of the strongest casters in the game.

Major Victoria Haley


Major Victoria Haley (Haley2)
Objective: Fuel Cache
* Squire
* Dynamo
* Gallant
* Stormclad
* Thorn
Journeyman Warcaster
* Firefly
Captain Arlan Strangewayes
3 Storm Lances

Baldur the Stonesoul


Baldur the Stonesoul (Baldur2)
Objective: Bunker
* Feral Warpwolf
* Megalith
* 2x Pureblood Warpwolf
Wrong Eye & Snapjaw
2x Sentry Stone & Mannikins
2x Shifting Stones


Deployment



Storm Lances go right to try to keep my zone clear, Dynamo goes left to try to shoot things in his zone, rest goes up the middle.

Baldur deploys the brick in the left zone.




Turn 1


Baldur2 moves up.




I cast my new Force Field spell, and move upwards. I would sure have liked Deflection better right now!



Turn 2


The brick bricks. Some Pureblood and Mannikin sprays kill poor Arlan, whom I should have kept further back.




Haley moves up, feats, everything that can contest next turn is cleared. I think.

Those ARM 20 heavies with Starcrossed are damn hard to kill! I manage to murder one Pureblood and do some slight damage to the Feral.


1-0




Turn 3


Stuff shuffles around. One Mannikin appears and toes into my zone, damn it!





I get no good photo here. I kill Snapjaw. Purgation hits really hard against a model with an animus!

2-0


Turn 4


But those Baldur beasts hit pretty hard, all three of my heavies die...

3-0






I get some camera problems, so no more photos.

I have lost too much stuff and it looks like he will be able to get at least one, maybe two heavies into my zone next turn. Roots will prevent me from getting them out again.

So, I decide to go for the kill. Thorn scoots ups and hits Baldur a few times. Then I cast Telekinesis to move Baldur so he can be assaulted by Storm Lances, but a barrage of Arcane Bolts from Haley kill him first.

4-0

Cygnar wins by assassination!


Post Mortem


Damn, that Baldur sure attritions hard! Possibly I should layer my models more so he cannot kill everything, and give me more chances to clear my own zone.

Anyway, I like this list as an alternative to the Stormwall list. It has more pieces to play with, and Gallant is great fun. :D

Battle Report #47: Caine2 vs Baldur2 (match #2)

After I threw the previous game, we reset and played again.

Captain Allister Caine


Captain Allister Caine (Caine2)
Objective: Fuel Cache
* Reinholdt
* Stormwall
Journeyman Warcaster
* Charger
Gun Mage Captain Adept
Ragman
Rhupert Carvolo
6 Rangers
2x3 Storm Lances

Baldur the Stonesoul


Baldur the Stonesoul (Baldur2)
Objective: Bunker
* Feral Warpwolf
* Megalith
* 2x Pureblood Warpwolf
Wrong Eye & Snapjaw
2x Sentry Stone & Mannikins
2x Shifting Stones


Deployment


Baldur2 wins the roll, I grab the side with the wall.



Turn 1


Baldur moves up and bricks up.



I move up and shoot away some Mannikins. The Stormwall puts some shots into the Feral.



Turn 2


The brick moves further up. Baldur2 feats. Two Storm Lances get shot away by Pureblood sprays. A Mannikin manages to get the GMCA.




Balder2 has placed himself in the wrong spot, and just removing a single Stone will be enough for Caine2 to get himself and the Stormwall to fire on him. We shake hands.


Cygnar wins by assassination!  




Then we minifeat Baldur2 back into safety, and continue the game.

The Stormwall moves up and splats Megalith. In hindsight, a terrible move. I should have stayed back, shot something, and kept getting points.

Left side Lances move far away to pull Wrong Eye and Snapjaw away from the fight.

I clear away all the things that could contest next turn and grab a point.


1-0





Turn 3


A Feral, two Purebloods and a Stormwall walk into a bar...

2-1





I have lost the attrition game, but try to jam as well as I can.

3-1




Turn 4


My jam is cleared and an ARM 21 Feral toes into the zone. Baldur is camping 4.


It will be impossible to kill the Feral and then live to clear the Pureblood next turn, so my only option is to go for the kill. It is not enough, and Baldur lives.



Circle wins by attrition!


Post Mortem


A clear misplay to give him the Stormwall! I should have kept back, kept scoring, and tried to force him into bad trades.


Battle Report #46: Caine2 vs Baldur2 (match #1)

The nerfs are upon us! This game is my first played according to the January 2017 Errata.

One of the casters that was hit really badly was Caine2, which incidentally is the caster I have been practicing the most with in preparation for the Norwegian Masters. Caine2 was really strong, but his best ability has been nerfed really hard. His new ability is called Empowered Shot, and is the same as his old Ammo Type - except takes a shot type costs 1 focus.

I am not quite sure whether this still leaves him a top tier caster, or whether this makes him more average. Time to find out!

This is a practice game for WTC 2017, so I am playing a different list than my usual choice, because reasons.


Captain Allister Caine


Caine2, Stormwall and Lances. A fairly standard setup, very punchy but depends a lot on  not losing that Stormwall.


Captain Allister Caine (Caine2)
Objective: Fuel Cache
* Reinholdt
* Stormwall
Journeyman Warcaster
* Charger
Gun Mage Captain Adept
Ragman
Rhupert Carvolo
6 Rangers
2x3 Storm Lances

Baldur the Stonesoul


Baldur and lots of heavies + Wrong Eye for extra defense when the brick engages. A lot to chew through, but Caine2 + GMCA should have some pressure on Baldur.

Baldur the Stonesoul (Baldur2)
Objective: Bunker
* Feral Warpwolf
* Megalith
* 2x Pureblood Warpwolf
Wrong Eye & Snapjaw
2x Sentry Stone & Mannikins
2x Shifting Stones


Asbjørn the Stonesoul has his war face on.

Deployment


I win the roll off. I am not sure if it's a good idea to give him the wall, but his army is slow and I decide to go first and claim the board.

By plan is to play for scenario and try to deny Asbjørn points in his zone while getting points in my zone.

The satyr model is a proxy Pureblood.




Turn 1


Arcane shield on the Stormwall, Bullet Dodger on Caine2, up we go.




The brick goes behind the wall. I am already in range of his stuff so Baldur2 feats. One Lance on the left gets sprayed away.




Turn 2



Lances move in. I kill all the small stuff that could contest the right zone, trying to force him into feeding me heavies to avoid letting me score. Caine2 moves to his zone. I have taken out the Mind on the right Pureblood, given him Grievous Wounds, and have DEF 19, so I'm feeling safe...




---unfortunately I have made a mistake and placed my own Ranger at exactly the wrong distance from Caine2. He gets thrown, Caine2 goes down, the Pureblood goes ghostly, disengages, and feasts on Caine's prostate body.




Circle wins by assassination!


Post Mortem


Haha, throws get nerfed and what do I lose to? Getting my own dude thrown on me. Probably I should have had Heightened Reflexes since there is not all that much Baldur can get on to me at range. Anyway, I think my strategy was good, the tactics leave something to be desired though.

We reset and try again.



torsdag 22. desember 2016

We wish you a Happy Nerfbat!

The whole family has been blighted by that good ol' Yule plague, no time for Warmachine but lots of time for sneezing and coughing. It seems as if the Swan has been naughty, and we're getting Cygnar nerfs for Christmas!

Errata January 2017

From PP to Cygnar, XOXO
First, the non faction specific stuff. As I predicted, PP has been very conservative with the nerfs and buffs. There is a lot of complaining about balance, but I think people have a tendency to underestimate just how well balanced the game is. What they have done is they fixed some broken rules, took down the strongest casters a peg, and gave some buffs to the factions that have been lagging behind. While there are clearly more things that could be done, I think it is a good strategy to be a bit careful.

It's important to avoid getting to the situation where things are over-corrected, so people have to buy / rebuild their armies completely, and then when the pendulum swings back again everything is invalidated again. It's a sure way to piss everyone off all of the time. It's better to piss just some people off some of the time!

Throws


Throws got nerfed, hard. Since you can no longer power attack your own models it suddenly got a whole lot more difficult to knockdown the opposing caster. I am very happy about this change. I thought the laser guided throws were the silliest part of Mk3, and now that you can no longer throw friendly models it becomes way harder to set these up. This is an indirect buff to all the casters that want to be up the board but just die to knockdowns, and it stops some really silly shenanigans with throwing your own caster.

Cygnar


Caine2 probably got hit the worst. Paying for Trick Shots, Grievous Wounds and Black Penny gives many casters much more counterplay against Caine. Trick Shot assassinations are probably impossible now. On the other hand, just gunning something away with the feat still works fine, and with throws nerfed he can play even more aggressively. He can probably skip using 2 Focus for Gate Crasher in many situations. He is clearly weaker now, but he was bonkers before, and I won't give up on my favorite gunslinger yet!

Haley2 lost Deflection, and Time Bomb got nerfed a bit. This makes it a harder to field a DEF skew army with her, and also makes it harder to control bricks. These were the two spells I used the least, and I think she is still a top tier caster even with these nerfs. Gaining knockdown immunity is cute and probably makes her stronger in matchups against casters like Rahn that rely on knocking down the enemy caster to land the assassination.

I don't play much Haley1 since almost all she does is Temporal Barrier all the time. She seemed weak and predictable before, even weaker now. I doubt her getting nerfed really changes anything.


Other Factions


Many of our strongest enemies got nerfed. Una2 and High Reclaimer are still as they were, but Wurmwood, Ossyan, Karchev, Khador infantry spam, Sentry Stones and Hellmouth got less powerful.

Cryx and Convergence got buffed a bit, which I think they needed, and of course Skorne is waiting for a complete faction rebuild!

Overall I think this is looking good. I am pretty sure I will still field Haley2, since while she lost some options she lost none of her core tools. With Caine2 I just have to see how much the nerfs matter. If I decide to swap out Caine2, maybe it will be Haley3 that picks up the slack. She was really strong and now that other top tier options are weaker, this might put her over the top. We'll see!


New Lists


I think I will keep Caine2 as he is, since it does not seem that any of his interactions with his own army changed much.

Haley2 will need a replacement for Lanyssa, since she gained a point. Probably I will swap in 4 Mechanics in that slot, or maybe I will buy Anastasia!

tirsdag 13. desember 2016

Is It Possible to Determine Caster and Faction Strength?

I just saw a post from a web site that allows people to self report battle results, and then posts faction rankings and a top 10 caster list based on this data on Facebook.

http://wmhbattlereporter.com/#/statsViewer?show=caster




I did some quick analysis and there are numerous problems with the data set, which lead me to believe that these top 10 lists are not the list of the strongest casters and factions, but that they are so noisy and inaccurate as to be almost random.

Analysis of the data set


Bear in mind I am not a statistician, but I have studied math and do have experience from work with programming, algorithms, game design and analysis of game statistics. One of the things I have learnt that it is bloody hard to get useful information out of data!

Bias Due to Self Reporting


All of the data is based on voluntary self reporting. This is always a low quality data source. People can choose to report or not report their games for any reason, and this introduces an unknown amount of bias in the data. As far as I can tell people do not need to log in to report games, so even though the app reports a number of players, I am unsure how they can know.

From just looking at the reported games, it seemed pretty obvious to me that a lot of the games with some casters come from only a very few individuals.

Too Low Volume to Do Analysis


The amount of data is low. The are around 180 warcasters and warlocks in the game, and as I understand it 3500 games have been reported (as of today). This means that on average there are less than 20 games per caster. You cannot compute anything out of such a low number of matches per caster.

The low number of matches per caster means that by chance popular casters will tend to go near 50% and the middle of the list, while less popular casters go to the top and bottom of the list.

To prove this, I sorted the list by the most games reported and. All of these are well known powerful casters, and none of them are in the "top 10 casters" reported by the website.




Confounding Variables


The data does not contain a vital piece of information - accurate estimates of player skill. WARMACHINE is a skill intensive game. Being better is much more important than relative faction or caster strength! If an experienced player plays a new player he is almost certain to win. When you have confounding variables that are likely to be much more important than the variables you want to measure, and don't have those variables, you have a problem.

Lack of Data Validation


You cannot discount the possibility of people simply reporting invalid data. Probably this would be rare, but with so few data points one bad apple could totally destroy the results. We don't know if this has happened, and probably not, but it cannot be ruled out - people do the strangest things.

Invalid Use of Elo Ratings


For some reason the factions and casters have been giving an Elo rating, but Elo ratings are based on the skill of single people playing a game. You cannot apply an Elo rating to a caster played by several different people. Using Elo this way is akin to giving the white pieces in chess an Elo rating.

The Results are Obviously Wrong


If you look at the list of top casters and top factions, then the numbers seem to have nothing to do with what people win tournaments with. Since actually winning tournaments is the litmus test for what actually is strong in reality, this disparity shows that what is being computed is not what is claimed to be computed.

If you filter the data set to only report tournaments, you can see that even then the top casters are missing most of the really good ones:




The win rates reported are unlikely to be the real win rates. Warmachine is a well balanced game, and I would be very surprised if any caster had an intrinsic win rate of more than 55% against a field of other strong casters.

Conclusion


While I appreciate the effort in setting up this website, and it would have been a cool thing to have such information, a system like this would need strong quality control in order to do what is wanted. You just cannot get quality information from poor quality data, and having lots of poor quality data is not going to help a lot.

I would advise everyone to not use this data to support any conclusion about what factions are better or worse, which models to buy, or what casters to use in a tournament.

Possible Improvements


I would guess the goal of a project like this would be to figure out which casters or factions are stronger, since that is what the reports posted contains and what people want to know.


One way of doing that would be to just ask people the question directly. After you have played a lot of games, you get some idea of what casters are hard to beat, which ones are fairly even, and which ones are relatively easy. Of course the skill of the people on your local meta might affect this, but this should average out as more opinions are gathered.


Another would be to purely base the statistics on data that are not prone to self-selection, and where single persons cannot skew the data as much. The obvious source here is to gather tournament data. Which factions are strongest? Well, it's the ones that win the most tournaments. Which casters are strongest? Also the ones that win the most tournaments. If you are able to track the players then you can compute their Elo, which would also help in removing player skill from the equation. There is of course some bias in that good players will take the strongest options,. It would probably give reasonable data, though.



søndag 11. desember 2016

Tournament Results: Cryx wins Internal Affairs VI!


The tournament is nearing the end...

Last round being played

...and the winner is... Cryx! OMG Cryx OP plz nerf kthxbye!


Kenneth Solli won with Cryx!

Warwitch Deneghra 


Warwitch Deneghra - WJ: +28
- Deathripper - PC: 6
- Kraken - PC: 36

Aiakos, Scourge of the Meredius - PC: 4
- Stalker - PC: 8
- Stalker - PC: 8
Orin Midwinter, Rogue Inquisitor - PC: 5
Pistol Wraith - PC: 5
Pistol Wraith - PC: 5

Cylena Raefyll & Nyss Hunters - Cylena & 9 Grunts: 19
Satyxis Gunslingers - Leader & 2 Grunts: 7

The Witch Coven of Garlghast 


The Witch Coven of Garlghast - WJ: +26
- Egregore
- Skarlock Thrall - PC: 4
- Barathrum - PC: 15
- Deathripper - PC: 6
- Deathjack - PC: 23

Necrotech - PC: 2
Machine Wraith - PC: 2
Machine Wraith - PC: 2

Bane Warriors - Leader & 5 Grunts: 10
Soulhunters - Leader & 4 Grunts: 18
Satyxis Raiders - Leader & 9 Grunts: 16
- Satyxis Raider Sea Witch - PC: 3

Post Mortem


In total I went 3-1 on my seconds Mk3 tournament and placed 7th out of 24. My Strength of Schedule was poor since I had lost the first game.


The tournament went better than expected, I would have been happy to go even. Overall I am satisfied with my play, I made fairly few mistakes and the lists are solid.

Kudos to Jarle for really well organized tournament!

My Battle Reports: Christian Tellefsen (Cygnar)


Match #1: Haley2 vs Butcher3
Match #2: Haley2 vs Helynna
Match #3: Caine2 vs Mandator
Match #4: Caine2 vs Deneghra1

Battle Reports: Jarle Svendsrud (Cygnar)


Match #1: Stryker3 vs Helynna
Match #2: Sloan vs Wurmwood
Match #3: Sloan vs High Reclaimer
Match #4: Sloan vs Harkevich

Full Tournament Results


PlayerFactionPldTPSOSCPVP
1Kenneth SolliCryx44910290
2Juan SalcedoKhador43127252
3Stian EngebretsenLegion of Everblight43103310
4Asbjørn WillersrudCircle of Orboros43816218
5Jarle SvendsrudCygnar43814304
6Geir VedeldProtectorate of Menoth43811208
7Christian TellefsenCygnar4388227
8Amund StokkeMercenaries42115172
9Trond BergsrudKhador42102285
10Jonas BrandCircle of Orboros4289122
11Martin Andre RøhmeLegion of Everblight3287229
12Marius Nyhus LarsenCryx4271095
13Sindre KjølvangTrollbloods4275217
14Christian BrubakkenProtectorate of Menoth4267180
15Morten GranCygnar4262201
16Lars HjelenConvergence of Cyriss4246152
17Nima YaghmaiRetribution of Scyrah4192140
18Mats AubellTrollbloods4188153
19Hans KjenesSkorne4185203
20Stian MadshusCryx4183118
21Lasse KalbergCygnar4172297
22Gard AndresenRetribution of Scyrah3170152
23Alexander BlomquistSkorne4140113
24Lars HorntvedtCygnar4077156



Battle Report #45: Caine2 vs Deneghra1 (Internal Affairs VI #4)

After playing Caine2 vs Bart I am now 2-1!

For the last game of the tournament my opponent Marius is unfortunately list locked into Deneghra1, having played Coven for all his other matches. Caine2 is a hard counter to that list, so I drop him of course. Honestly, I feel a bit bad.


"Gode miner til slett spill", as we say in Norway

Captain Allister Caine (75 points)



Captain Allister Caine (Caine2, Bunker)
* Reinholdt
* Centurion
* Hunter
Journeyman Warcaster
* Firefly
Gun Mage Captain Adept
Ragman
Rhupert Carvolo
6 Rangers
5 Storm Lances
10 Trencher Infantry

Warwitch Deneghra (75 points)


Warwitch Deneghra (Deneghra1)
* Barathrum
* Deathripper
* Nightwretch
Pistol Wraith
Wrong Eye
* Snapjaw
6 Satyxis Gunslingers
10 Satyxis Raiders
* Sea Witch
10 Cylena Raefyll & Nyss Hunters
3 Cephalyx Overlords


Deployment



The scenario is unwinnable by my opponent since he cannot dominate a flag without being within 19" of Caine2. My battle plan is to not die to anything, and just shoot all his stuff away.

Turn 1


I move up and dig in, outside his threat range. Caine gets Heightned Reflexes just so he won't die to some knockdown trick.





Barathrum tries to jam up the middle, and everything else moves up.




Turn 2


The Trenchers charge Barathrum and kill him. Caine moves up, trick shots away a bunch of Satyxis and Nyss, and Gate Crashes out of range of everything. Lances charge and murder some models, and reposition to jam up the Gunslingers,




Marius fires back and kills a Storm Lance and a Ranger. Whee.




Turn 3



I kill the Cephalyx, the rest of the Gunslingers. Deneghra's army is pretty much wiped out at this point. We shake hands!




Cygnar wins by attrition!


Post Mortem


I felt a bit bad after this, the matchup is just a massacre. Marius was a good sport through it all, though. Next time he will bring Coven, and then we'll have a proper game!

And... guess which OP faction won the whole thing?

Battle Report #44: Caine2 vs Montador (Internal Affairs VI #3)

After facing Helynna with Haley2 I was ready for a third round. Now I face Amund's Mercenaries with Mantador and the Cephalyx dude spam. I cannot play Haley2 into 60+ Cephalyx so I drop Caine2. Amund drops Mondator.

Captain Allister Caine (75 points)


Captain Allister Caine (Caine2, Bunker)
* Reinholdt
* Centurion
* Hunter
Journeyman Warcaster
* Firefly
Gun Mage Captain Adept
Ragman
Rhupert Carvolo
6 Rangers
5 Storm Lances
10 Trencher Infantry


Captain Bartolo Montador (75 points)



Captain Bartolo Montador (Montador1, Stockpile)
* Galleon
* 2x Nomad
* Mangler
Orin Midwinter
Raluk Moorclaw
Trencher Infantry
* Officer & Sniper


Deployment



His list is very tanky. I will have to spend a long time to kill all those ARM21 heavies and ARM22 Galleon. but I think I have scenario opportunities.

He wins the die roll and goes first. I take the trench and the open terrain.

I deploy the Hunter on the left to stay in the small forest and deny the left zone. Caine goes in the middle with the Centurion and the Lances go far right.




Turn 1


Bart moves up. I move up and cloud up in front of Caine2 just in case. Rangers get Dirge of Mist and Lances get Arcane Shield. Caine2 gets Bullet Dodger and the Trenchers get Heightened Reflexes.





Turn 2


Bart feats and shoots some Trenchers, and a lucky shot kills a Storm Lance, needing 12 on 2D6!




Caine2 moves up and uses trick shots to kill half his Trenchers. Lances back out a bit so they can charge to clear the zone next turn.




Turn 3



Galleon toes into the zone and a Mangler kills my Firefly in two attacks! Bart is hiding behind a Nomad. First I look at an attrition play, I could use Ragman, feat with Caine and hit the Galleon a lot of times. But then I see that a few of the enemy Trenchers are about 10" away from Caine2. I measure it up, and from that position Caine2 can just barely see Bart.

Bart is at ARM19,  but this seems like a good opportunity! I really want to have the +2 to hit from Rangers. I use those awesome movement templates from Frozen Forge to measure up the 14" Ranger run around the Mangler and Trencher. It's possible!




The Ranger runs up.




Caine2 gets Pathfinder from Rhupert, charges the Trencher, feats, kills it with the first shot, misses a shot with snake eyes, but five shots is enough to kill Bart!




Post Mortem


This seemed difficult against so much armor, but Caine can often find a way! The GMCA prevents Bart from hiding behind the Galleon and that makes things a lot harder for him.

I am up 2-1 in the tournament, this is going well! The last fight will be Caine2 against Deneghra1.