Kraye, Pincushion, and Trencher Express Teams: The math

I did a little math to see whether Pincushion helps to land Express Team critical knockdowns. I was expecting it to be slightly better, but was a bit surprised to see how much better!

AnyDice code below. It will check if the 3 highest dice hit the target number, and then whether any of these 3 dice show the same face.

function: crit ROLL:s drop lowest at least TARGET:n {

  result: {1,2,3}@ROLL >= TARGET &

          (1@ROLL = 2@ROLL | 1@ROLL = 3@ROLL | 2@ROLL = 3@ROLL)

}

output [crit 4d6 drop lowest at least 12]

This gives the following chances of hitting the KD on boosted shots using Pincushion (4D6-DL-C), and without Pincushion (3D6-C):

Target  4D6-DL-C  3D6

 4      53.63%    43.98%

 5      53.32%    42.59%

 6      52.55%    39.81%

 7      51.85%    37.96%

 8      49.85%    33.80%

 9      46.91%    29.63%

10      44.52%    26.39%

11      39.74%    22.22%

12      34.80%    18.06%

13      30.25%    14.81%

14      24.38%    10.65%

15      16.67%     6.48%

16      13.04%     4.63%

17       5.79%     1.85%

18       1.62%     0.46%